There have been 3 oil crises in history!
The first time: From 1973 to 1974, the fourth Middle East war broke out. In order to attack Israel and its supporting countries, OPEC announced that it was an oil well cloud, causing oil prices to skyrocket from 3 US dollars per barrel to 12 US dollars per barrel! It triggered a recession in developed countries in the West. The United States fell by 4.7%, Europe fell by 2.5%, and Japan fell by 7%.
The second time: From 1979 to the early 1980s, during the Iranian Revolution, the price of oil soared from US$15/barrel to US$39/barrel, and the US GDP fell by 3%!
The third time: In the 1990 Gulf War, the price soared from US$21/barrel to US$46/barrel within three months. As the multinational force quickly resolved the Iraq issue, this time the impact was relatively small, but it still caused panic around the world!
Was the oil crisis only caused by war?
The three oil crises we have seen were all caused by wars, but in fact, since the beginning of large-scale industrial use of oil, the oil crises have been shrouded in humans. The cause of it is very simple, but the process is tortuous and bizarre, and in the end it is still It has become a mystery with great variables!
“The world will run out of oil in 10 years.”-U.S. Bureau of Mines (1914)
“The world will run out of oil in 13 years.”-U.S. Department of the Interior (1939 and 1950)
“By 1990, the world will run out of oil and other fossil fuels.” —Paul Erlich, “The Limits of Growth” (1973)
“The world will run out of oil by 2030, and other fossil fuels by 2050.”
Does this sound sound familiar, because until now, such “rumors” are still being broadcast on major media. It’s impossible if you don’t want to hear such sounds, because oil is a natural resource, it must be There is a limit, but the question is where is this limit? No one seems to know!
Where is the bottom line of oil?
On June 17, 2020, the British BP Petroleum Corporation released the “2019 World Energy Statistics Review” report, confirming that the global oil reserves are about 1,729.7 billion barrels, which can be used for about 50 years based on the current global consumption rate, starting from 1914 It can be automatically extended every time it expires in the past year. Is it really unlimited?
What is the cause of oil?
To understand whether it is “infinite”, it is necessary to have a simple understanding of the origin of oil. The origin of the oil has always been said to be the origin of biomass. Its process is similar to the formation of coal. For example, the formation of coal is from peat, lignite, and sub-bituminous coal. , Bituminous coal, anthracite, obviously anthracite is much better than lignite, but it takes time to settle.
The formation of oil requires sedimentation, sludge, and kerogen, and undergoes geochemical catalytic cracking to form the initial oil, then transfers and enriches to form an oil field, and finally is discovered to become a petroleum resource that can be used by humans.
Petroleum and coal are the causes of biomass. Some friends misunderstand that coal is a plant and oil is an animal, but it is actually wrong. Petroleum is also mainly formed from plants!
Porous structure in “oil field”
Another argument is inorganic origin. Mendeleev may be the first to put forward the theory of inorganic origin petroleum. Of course, it is normal for the old men to make low-level mistakes on many scientific issues. For example, Harley still thinks the earth is like a Russian matryoshka. , One ball sets another ball!
Inorganic genesis believes that oil may come from hydrocarbon deposits when the earth was formed. It is formed through complex geochemical processes. Therefore, it is infinite in terms of planetary reserves. In 1971, Chekruka also proposed high-temperature formation of inorganic origin. There is also the serpentine metaplasia proposed by Yelansky, I don’t know if you have found it, it is all hairs!
But in fact, no pre-Cambrian oil reservoirs have been discovered. Modern oil fields are in the Cambrian to Quaternary or even Pleistocene sedimentary strata. If it is of inorganic origin, it should be in any stratigraphic age, right?
Will the oil of organic origin run out?
From a theoretical point of view, both inorganic and organic will be used up, but the inorganic cause is planetary level, while the organic cause is N orders of magnitude smaller, so the organic cause is more likely to be used up in the visible time in the future, but for humans According to the law of development, oil may never run out!
A paper written by Adam Brandt and Alex Farrell of the University of California, Berkeley pointed out that the world consumes about 5% of the oil reserves that can be converted by current technology, and more oil will gradually change from unusable to available as human technology advances. Utilized oil storage
What do you mean? Just how much money is spent and how much oil is produced! As long as a sufficient price is paid, energy will continue to dig out oil from the depths of the earth! This is evident from the “tragic encounter” in the United States! The United States has been shot, and it is from its ally Saudi Arabia!
During the 2008 financial crisis, the world oil price soared to US$145/barrel. During this period, the U.S. invested heavily in the half-dead shale oil industry at the end of the last century, ushered in a moment of explosive development. It turned into an exporting country.
But the good times are not long. In July 2020, Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK), an American shale oil and gas company, announced that it had filed for bankruptcy protection. This is another “victim” in the era of low oil prices because of oil prices. Declining, the high mining cost of shale oil has become a tasteless! And there are 32 shale oil companies or related companies that are facing bankruptcy risk.
Of course, the relationship behind this is that Saudi Arabia understands one thing. High oil prices are not a good thing, because there are too many competitors. Among them, Russia is not cold, because Siberia’s oil fields are very expensive, and high oil prices allow Russia to earn a lot of money. It is full, so Saudi Arabia wants to get rid of Russia, so OPEC releases production, oil prices plummet, and Russia complains!
But the more funny thing is that the higher mining cost of shale oil went crazy first, American shale oil companies closed down one after another, and Russia is still struggling to support it!
Oil is not without, but who is willing to pay a higher price
Currently, what is being exploited is oil reservoirs with relatively shallow burial and easier to exploit. What is being developed is shale oil and oil sands. The future to be exploited is deep-water oil and oil in deeper strata that are difficult to exploit. So in Adam Brandt and Alex In Farrell’s paper, only 5% of the world’s consumption of oil reserves that can be converted by the current technology, and the potential oil reservoirs seem to be considerable!
But one thing to be sure is that the cost will become higher and higher. Of course, this will promote the rapid development of another industry, such as the electric vehicle industry. The most important thing now is not no electricity, but how to store electricity. If this technology breaks through, then The big oil transportation industry will put aside the expensive and unenvironmental oil, it will become a chemical raw material and auxiliary power fuel!
In the future energy technology revolution, if nuclear fusion is realized, the use of petroleum will really only be a chemical raw material, but even if it cannot be realized, there are still various green alternative energy sources, but the key is the advancement of battery technology, such as the increase in energy density. ten times?